Welcome to General Election eve. It’s late so I’m off to bed any minute ready for tomorrow night’s marathon.
The final predictions from the pollsters are in and while of course they count for nowt until the votes are actually cast, the future looks very red. The Tories are in for a trouncing, and the only question is the degree of deadness.
Some of the biggest names in local politics could disappear if tonight’s YouGov poll is accurate, with Michael Fabricant in Lichfield emerging as a likely loser. Gary Sambrook in Birmingham Northfield will definitely go, while Rachel Maclean in Redditch and Suzanne Webb in Stourbridge could join him, if the polls are accurate.
Whither the Independents who have dominated the local narrative this election? There is no reliable local polling available so it’s really hard to call, with the Independents massively talking up their support while Labour candidates say it’s all too close to call and they are taking nothing for granted. One independent insider suggested they would take three seats - Ladywood, Yardley and Perry Barr. I predict zero.
But whatever the outcome, we are a city in pain, hurt by years of Conservative austerity cuts, a cost of living crisis, a failing welfare system and underfunded social care. Layer in a council in freefall and the result is thousands of families and children on the brink. We’ve a city with shameful levels of child poverty, working families falling into debt, queues for emergency hospital care and a GP appointment, and homeless hotels stuffed to the gills with desperate mums and their kids looking for hope.
It’s not entirely broken. The city centre skyline is full of cranes and high rise office blocks that give the gloss of success, and plenty of people are making the best of things and enjoying the city’s culture, arts, decent jobs and high life.
The next Government needs to step up and deliver change, and fast. It needs to spend its first 100 days coming up with a plan on child poverty, a plan to address the NHS crisis before winter is upon us again, and a revamp of social care. We need a public inquiry into Birmingham City Council’s finances and a rapid action plan. We need…well, the to-do list is huge. Send me your suggestions to jane.haynes@reachplc.com
A new study by Reuters has recently found that four in ten people no longer follow the news, because they just find it all too overwhelming. That’s a challenge for the news media, which I’d like to talk about another time, but it’s also a challenge for our political system. This disconnect and overwhelm will be reflected in the turnout tomorrow, with the possibility of a new low this century.
Final countdown
I’ll be up all night at the Birmingham ICC, starting from when the polls close at 10pm and finishing when the last result for the region is posted. All the results and reaction will be posted live on BirminghamLive and on multiple media, your socials, your telly and radio, so you’ll be unlikely to miss it.
But do look out in your inbox early Friday for my exclusive diary of the night, complete with rapid analysis of what it means for the city.
Key moments for my diary
10.01-ish pm - Exit poll is released - generally an accurate prediction of the big picture, though this is a somewhat unusual election given the huge swings likely. In 2019, any hopes that Jeremy Corbyn harboured of a big night for Labour were dashed in an instant when the exit poll came out. Expect the same for Rishi Sunak. For observers of the Independent challenge in Birmingham, it could give insight but not finality. If you just want to get the overall picture, you can go to bed now.
10pm-midnight - After an exit poll analysis piece, I’ll be speaking with candidates, agents, the returning officer Robert Connelly and contributing to a live blog I’ll be running through the night, with video clips, photos and interviews capturing the anticipation and drama of the night. Nine Birmingham seats are counted at the ICC. Sutton Coldfield is counted separately in Sutton. Seats in Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Staffordshire, Shropshire, Worcestershire will also have their own counts.
Midnight - Expect the first results nationally, usually from Blyth and Ashington or Houghton or Sunderland South. By now I will be on my third coffee.
Midnight to 2am - We rarely see early results in Birmingham but agents and candidates will by now be getting a real feel for how the night is going by keeping an eye on the counting. Votes are piled up on tables around the counting hall, by candidate, so it’s not hard to work out what’s happening. I’ll be interviewing and observing.
2am-ish - Cannock Chase, currently held by Conservative minister Amanda Milling, is one to watch. Labour require a 22 point swing to win.
2am-3am - Expect a flurry of results which will decide the night. The Lib Dems will be hoping to win Stratford-on-Avon, traditionally a safe Conservative seat. Halesowen is also likely in this hour. Dudley, Stourbridge and the two Walsall seats might also be early results - how the Tories fare here will decide if the majority is big or huge. The first Birmingham results will come in.
Ladywood is one to watch. In particular, will Akhmed Yakoob carry the momentum of the mayoral election into the General Election?
By the way, when results are ready, all candidates are given a brief preview off stage by the returning officer, before they are ushered onto the stage for their public reward/humiliation. It’s the cruellest way to reveal who has a job, and who hasn’t.
3am - Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North seat is set to declare, which will give an interesting insight into the Independent challenge.
3am-4am - Well over 300 results nationally will be in by now, so a detailed picture will have emerged of the overall outcome. The seats in Solihull, Aldridge-Brownhills, Walsall, West Brom and several Birmingham seats are likely during what is always a frantic hour.
4am - Likely to be Nigel Farage’s big moment, with the Clacton result due.
4am-4.30am - If you’re a sadist, this is the half hour when the results for multiple Conservative ministers is due, including Jacob Rees Mogg. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s fate is set for around 4am. No prime minister has ever lost their seat before.
By 5am, over 500 constituencies should be declared.
5am-6am - The final constituencies should declare. Barring recounts and delays, we should be wrapping up our live results coverage around now and ramping up the analysis.
Friday lunchtime - The newly elected Prime Minister will enter Number 10 and will begin to reveal his Cabinet, likely all done by the evening.
For a full national picture and timings, do check out the brilliant substack by Comment is Freed, who has done a much more fulsome rundown of key timings. He has also created an amazing 650-seat analysis which should keep you busy for a while. Follow his substack here.
He also recommends some other fabulous sites created by subscribers to his Substack
That’s it from me tonight. Don’t forget to vote - and see you Friday morning, with a new government in place. Take care, Jane
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