How many 'safe' Labour MPs in Birmingham could lose over Gaza?
After a shock announcement from a rain soaked Rishi Sunak, Birmingham goes to the polls in six weeks in the General Election. How big a part will Palestine play?
Good morning Insiders! Who else is excited for the General Election?
Rishi Sunak’s rain-soaked announcement on Wednesday, his words barely audible over the top of a tinny rendition of the Labour anthem ‘Things Can Only Get Better’, will go down as one of the defining political PR moments in recent times. The Conservatives will be hoping things do get better after that shower, or their campaign will sink without a trace.
I’m kicking things off today with a dive into the likely impact we can expect from the local campaigners keen to use the GE to focus attention on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Multiple candidates are lining up to take aim at sitting MPs over their voting records on Palestine, with Labour politicians bearing the brunt of the animosity.
Read on for my insights, including my recent conversations with Liam Byrne, Jess Phillips, Andrew Mitchell, Akhmed Yakoob and Ayoub Khan.
Look out too for a new Election Watch column starting alongside your usual newsletter offering next week, bringing you the hot gossip from the campaign trail. If you want to contribute your insider tips and insights in confidence, drop me an email to jane.haynes@reachplc.com and stick Elections in the subject heading.
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Are city Labour MPs at risk of losing their seats in Parliament over Palestine?
Akhmed Yakoob, despite his buoyant ego, could hardly believe his eyes. “Nearly 70,000 people voted for me. That’s incredible,” he said, checking the piece of paper he had been given with the votes breakdown. Regaining his composure, he described it as a ‘political earthquake’ that had shown he could turn street protest into real votes.
It sent out a stark warning to MPs in the city too, he said. “We are coming for your seats,” he said.
Yakoob, an ally of George Galloway, the controversial Rochdale MP and head of the Workers Party of GB, was celebrating his third place in the West Midlands mayoral election. A breakdown of the results in Birmingham revealed he had fared very strongly in Muslim majority areas of the city, and had pushed Labour into second place in some of its heartland wards. In all he took 42,923 city votes.
He intends to build on that momentum by standing in Birmingham Ladywood, which happens to be one of the safest Labour seats in the country. He should really have no hope of ousting Shabana Mahmood, who has held the seat since 2010. Her majority in 2019 was just shy of 29,000, and she took 79.2% of the vote.
But that was before Labour’s ‘Gaza problem’ became an issue of significance. “I am ready to go,” said Yakoob, who told me he had cancelled a planned holiday next week to lead his election campaign. “The mayor vote showed what we can do. I’ve got a lot of support,” he said.
Others are rapidly throwing their hats into the ring to join him as independents, all intending to highlight Gaza anger in their campaigns. Shakeel Afsar, who gained notoriety as the leader of primary school protests that condemned the teaching of LGBT equality to children, has announced he is standing in Birmingham Hall Green against Tahir Ali. Jody McIntyre, an anti-war and disability activist, is taking on Jess Phillips in Birmingham Yardley, attacking her record on Gaza.
A big challenge faces shadow veterans minister Steve McCabe in Birmingham Selly Oak, who will come up against the former head of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, Kamel Hawwash, who is a Professor in the School of Civil Engineering at the University of Birmingham.
McCabe is chairman of Labour’s Friends of Israel group. Professor Hawwash, who is a British Palestinian, quit the Labour Party in October after Sir Keir Starmer appeared to back Israel withholding food and water from civilians in the Gaza Strip. He accused the Labour leader of having “blind support for Israel whatever it does” and “throwing Palestinians under a bus”.
Launching his campaign for the Birmingham seat earlier this month, Professor Hawwash said: “Keir Starmer’s comments condoning Israel’s collective punishment of Gazans were beyond the pale. His unequivocal support for Netanyahu in the months since - which has seen more than 35,000 Gazans murdered - 70 per cent of which are women and children - has been horrifying to witness and he must be held accountable.”
Also planning to campaign around the Gaza situation is Liberal Democrat city councillor Ayoub Khan, a criminal barrister, who has announced his candidacy in Perry Barr, taking on Khalid Mahmood. He told me he would enter the campaign with confidence.
“Labour has taken the vote for granted among the city’s Muslim population. Perry Barr has a strong pro-Palestine demographic, while the Labour Birmingham City Council has failed to protect services, keep the streets clean, collect rubbish and safeguard people. People want change.”
The existing margins that challengers would need to overcome
Birmingham Edgbaston - Preet Kaur Gill: Labour hold, 5,614 majority
Birmingham Erdington - Paulette Hamilton: Labour hold, 3,266 majority (from 2022 by-election)
Birmingham Hall Green - Tahir Ali: Labour hold, 28,508 majority
Birmingham Hodge Hill (now Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North) - Liam Byrne: Labour hold, 28,655 majority
Birmingham Ladywood - Shabana Mahmood: Labour hold, 28,582 majority
Birmingham Northfield - Gary Sambrook: Conservative gain, 1,640 majority
Birmingham Perry Barr - Khalid Mahmood: Labour hold, 15,317 majority
Birmingham Selly Oak - Steve McCabe: Labour hold, 12,414 majority
Birmingham Sutton Coldfield - Andrew Mitchell: Conservative hold, 19,272 majority
Birmingham Yardley - Jess Phillips: Labour hold, 10,659 majority
NOTE: All constituencies underwent boundary changes in 2023. Check out a full breakdown of each constituency’s new boundaries by clicking here. The changes could have a big impact - for example, the ward of Alum Rock, the centre of pro Palestine activism, was previously in Hodge Hill constituency and is now part of Ladywood, along with all of Bordesley Green. The wards of Aston and Holyhead, and part of Lozells, previously in Ladywood, are now in Perry Barr. Castle Bromwich and Smith’s Wood, previously in Solihull, are now in the new Hodge Hill and Solihull North constituency.
Jess Phillips expects she too will have a fight on her hands to see off any challenges on the Palestine issue, despite taking a stand last November. She told how mailbag and inbox from constituents was overwhelmingly about Gaza (as opposed to issues like the financial crisis at Birmingham City Council).
“It's undoubtedly an issue in my constituency, one I speak to my constituents about all the time. It's a massive issue. I get thousands of messages about Gaza.”
She knows it could cost her seat, though of course hopes not. Phillips was the most high profile of the rebels who defied the party whip to vote in favour of a Gaza ceasefire in the SNP amendment vote. It cost her a job she loved, as shadow minister for women’s rights and domestic violence.
Liam Byrne, representing Birmingham Hodge Hill, was another of the rebels. It meant he defied the Labour party whip for the first time in 19 years - a mark of his distaste for his party’s position.
Like Phillips, he voted for backed an immediate ceasefire in the hostilities between Israel and Hamas. Alongside them voting ‘aye’ were Tahir Ali and Khalid Mahmood.
Shadow frontbenchers Shabana Mahmood (Birmingham Ladywood) and Preet Kaur Gill (Birmingham Edgbaston) abstained or did not vote, along with McCabe (Birmingham Selly Oak) and Paulette Hamilton (Birmingham Erdington).
Conservatives Andrew Mitchell (Sutton Coldfield) and Gary Sambrook (Northfield) voted against the amendment - but the pro-Palestine lobby appears more frustrated with the Labour party’s stance than with the incumbent Tory Government that is actually dealing with the issue. “That’s because we expect better of Labour. It’s the party that should be on the side of social justice and humanity, and people feel let down,” explained one activist.
Since the turn of the year, the situation in Gaza has worsened on every measure. At least 33,000 Palestinians are said to have perished, including thousands of children. In protest, thousands of Brummies have taken to the streets of the city in pro-Palestine rallies. Palestine flags have gone up on street corners in Alum Rock and Heartlands.
Local Jewish community leaders have spoken of their fear that the hostility towards the Israeli offensive could turn on them. Michael Gove has condemned rising anti-Semitism, while former home secretary Suella Braverman described Gaza demonstrations as “hate marches” - a claim that counter extremism tsar Sara Khan labelled ‘dangerous’.
It’s all a toxic, divisive mess, and there are fears that the next few weeks could see emotions boil over.
Shabana Mahmood, McCabe, Gill and Hamilton have all faced personal protests outside constituency offices or close to where they were holding constituency surgeries, as well as online trolling and social media commentary. They have had their faces stuck on van billboards touring the city’s inner city neighbourhoods, condemned for failing Palestine’s children.
Byrne is comfortable to defend his personal record on the Palestine question.
“I have had many arguments with Keir Starmer over his leadership on Gaza,” he said. “I first went to Palestine in 1989 when I was 19 years old, during the first intifada (a sustained series of protests in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories and Israel) and that memory has stayed with me. It is why I have spoken out on Palestine and Gaza throughout my time in Parliament, and it’s why I broke the Labour whip before Christmas for the first time to vote for a ceasefire.”
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