Independent election campaigns look worryingly like women-free zones
And could the Tories be wiped out in Birmingham?
Welcome to the weekend. No time to waste, so let’s crack on.
I’ve been on the General Election trail for a couple of weeks and, as promised, this newsletter looks at what I’ve found so far (part 1).
The focus this time is posh Birmingham, also known as Sutton Coldfield. It’s one of only two Tory seats in the city and is among the party’s top 80 safest seats nationwide. If it falls to Labour, it really will mean electoral wipeout for the party. But is this really likely? Read on for my take. WARNING: It’s an epic.
But before that, I’ve been increasingly troubled, as have many of you, by the machismo evident in the Independent campaigns run by Akhmed Yakoob and Shakeel Afsar in Ladywood and Hall Green/Moseley, and their Workers Party ally Jody McIntyre in Yardley.
A shared admiration of controversial self confessed misogynist Andrew Tate, currently facing charges of human trafficking, rape and organised crime, is bad enough. Troubling comments dismissed as ‘jokes’ about domestic violence and trans people provide further evidence. Then there’s the antiquated belief expressed by Yakoob that women are queens who need to be home with the kids while their men ‘get their hands dirty’ at work (he’s a solicitor, incidentally).
Take a look at their social media posts and campaign videos and there is barely a woman in sight. Gatherings in community rooms, in halls and on the streets feature startlingly few women. Where are they?
Yakoob and Afsar both tell me women are involved in their campaigns, including in prominent roles. Women are part of their teams of volunteers too - I met several doing leaflet drops while out in Alum Rock with Yakoob earlier this week.
But the absence of female faces in their promotional content plays into a macho narrative and magnifies an archaic trope that says men are the thinkers and doers, the women happy in the background or at home.
Yakoob faces a growing list of jibes about his actions and comments.
I exposed him earlier in the campaign for sharing a falsely captioned video that targeted a woman teacher, falsely, as a racist. He published her name and school to his huge online following, triggering a pile-on including abusive messages. He was slow to act when the truth came to light, only apologising much later. His conduct is still under investigation by the Solictors Regulation Authority.
He was caught out ‘joking’ about domestic violence in a Minted Minds podcast, hosted by Birmingham-based entrepreneur Abdhul Zaman, that has been widely condemned. City domestic violence campaigner Cllr Nicky Brennan said of it: “One in four women are victims of domestic abuse in their lives, on average two women die a week at the hands of violent men. It’s nothing to joke about."
In a videoed exchange on another podcast he makes more ‘jokes’ in a discussion about trans people suggesting he would ‘spark out’ anyone who ‘looked like a man’ who went into a ladies’ loo while claiming to be a woman.
Against each of these charges Yakoob has apologised for ‘mistakes’ and immaturity. It’s a similar story with Shakeel Afsar, who bats away any evidence of anti LGBT sentiment expressed on social media as being down to ‘inexperience’. Do note, however, that both men are in their mid 30s, one a property developer, the other a criminal lawyer.
Afsar has liked multiple anti-LGBT posts on social media. A recent X/Twitter thread by a concerned Birmingham resident highlighted several examples including ones describing gay and trans people as mentally ill and critical of London Mayor Sadiq Khan for attending Pride.
In an incident last year that was widely condemned, he aggressively confronted Kim Leadbeater, MP for Batley and Spen and sister of murdered MP Jo Cox, outside a school, shouting at her while quizzing her on Kashmir rights and relationships education in schools. Even when she walked off to get in her car he pursued her, shouting.
When I quizzed him about this incident, he claimed he had done nothing wrong, and it was the actions of the MP’s ‘henchmen’ who had escalated the affair. He also claimed he happened to bump into the MP while attending the mosque nearby and had not gone there specially to confront her. You can judge for yourself by viewing the video of the encounter here.
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The reason all of this matters is that Yakoob, and to a lesser extent Afsar, are feted as something of folk heroes and an inspiration by a new generation of Brummies, especially young Brummie Muslims. Taking a walk down Alum Rock Road with Yakoob, as I did earlier this week, is like trailing after a pop star, with young lads fist bumping him and young women asking for photos. He has clout and a level of personality that other politicians might only dream of. But with great power comes great responsibility.
The Muslim Women’s Network shared their concerns about Yakoob in a public letter posted last night. It reads:
Muslim Women’s Network UK (MWNUK) is deeply disturbed by the comments made by Akhmed Yakoob, an independent candidate for the Birmingham Ladywood constituency, criminal law solicitor, and TikTok influencer. In clips from a recent podcast shared online, Mr Yakoob is heard suggesting that “70% of hell is going to be women.” Additionally, he has expressed support for Andrew Tate, a misogynistic influencer currently awaiting trial in Romania on charges of human trafficking and rape. Mr. Yakoob’s public alignment with Andrew Tate and his comments raise serious questions about his judgment and values.
The spread of misogynistic attitudes online and in public discussions fuels violence against women and girls. Domestic homicide rates are particularly high among Black, Asian, and minority women. Ensuring the safety and well-being of women in every community should be a top priority for all parliamentary candidates. With women making up half of the population in every constituency and many areas having a significant number of Muslim women voters, their voices will be pivotal in this general election. We strongly encourage all women to closely examine candidates' positions on crucial issues such as violence against women and girls (VAWG) and equality.
We also urge all parliamentary candidates to condemn violence against women and girls (VAWG) and misogyny, and to commit to improving the safety of women in all communities. Every voter has the right to demand accountability and integrity from those who seek to represent them in Parliament.
• MWN Helpline can be contacted on: Tel: 0800 999 5786 / E: info@mwnhelpline.co.uk
Yakoob said of the Minted Mind podcast he was involved in: "Everyone is on a learning curve and everyone makes mistakes. We learn things daily. I'm on a learning curve. And if I have upset anyone by taking part in that podcast, I apologize and if I have upset anyone, it's unintentional."
Disabled activist McIntyre is another with questions to answer. He spoke of the ‘trans community’ being a ‘danger to society’ during an exchange, and has yet to address the concerns that comment triggered.
Lee Dargue is the Lib Dem candidate in Ladywood and has real concerns about the messages he is seeing on the election trail. He has questioned how Yakoob and Afsar could ever be allies of LGBT residents, given their position that they cannot ‘promote’ gay equality because doing so is ‘prohibited in Islam’.
Birmingham Ladywood has the “gay quarter” of the city at it’s heart, a safe place for queer people to hang out and express themselves freely. Many thousands of LGBT+ people and their allies live in harmony in the city but, says Dargue: “LGBT+ people have told me that they are nervous, some scared, of the words used by some of the other candidates before and during this election.
“Trans people in particular have had to bear the brunt of most of the lack of support or abuse. The LGBT+ community must be served, alongside every other community within Ladywood, by any candidate and especially by any MP. Even if candidates claim they will speak to anyone, the damage has, unfortunately, already been done, as some LGBT+ people have told me that they wouldn’t feel welcome or safe with the two current major candidates vying for Ladywood.”
He adds: “We must not return to the days of section 28, LGBT+ people need as loud a voice as everyone else in Ladywood.”
It’s a concern shared by Hall Green and Moseley Lib Dem candidate Izzy Knowles, who says she worries about the impact of ‘loudhailer democracy’ on minority groups across the city. The constituency she wants to represent includes thousands of gay people but also a significant community of Jewish families, and the city’s most prominent Jewish school, and voices focussed on division risk community cohesion, she says.
Back to Dargue, whose concerns are not just confined to Yakoob. He references ‘both’ leading candidates in Ladywood as being problematic on LGBT issues - the other being Labour candidate Shabana Mahmood. Her voting record shows she has advocated for and supported gay equality in Parliament, voting for gay marriage and rights on numerous occasions.
But Dargue says he was troubled by a recent speech she made to a law gathering that has been picked over after she touched on the trans ‘debate’, which she says has become so toxic as to disregard nuance and questions, especially around the viability of safe spaces for women.
She stated her personal belief that biological sex is real and immutable, and that women with gender critical views should not be “stigmatised” for saying them, including JK Rowling.
Clearly it’s not just the Independent and Workers Party candidates who have questions to answer over their positions on women’s safety, gay rights and the trans debate.
On the election trail in Sutton Coldfield
A tranche of polls predict a Tory wipeout on July 4th, leaving a Labour majority of over 200 seats and the skewering of safe Conservative seats, many held for generations. Sutton Coldfield is one of them.
But more sober voices tell a different story, in part based on crunching the numbers that are being gathered on the doorstep. Pat McFadden, the man Keir Starmer has put in charge of the 2024 election campaign for Labour, says in a Times interview today that the huge leads and wild seat projections are deceptive and mask what’s really going on in “dozens and dozens” of battleground seats.
“My advice to the staff I work with every day is ignore these polls,” McFadden says. “One of the things I find frustrating about them is any notion that the election is done. It’s not done. Many of these seats are on a knife edge. They might be going into the election with Tory majorities in the thousands, but they might be decided by just a few hundred votes either way.”
Andrew Mitchell, the Tory sitting MP for over two decades in Sutton Coldfield, is also a fan of a more sober approach. He has dismissed polling showing him losing as ‘nonsense’ and has even said he thinks he will increase his majority.
He’s just posted a video of Bob Geldof offering his support to his friend Mitchell. Sir Bob’s influence on Sutton voters is likely to be marginal, given he admits he has never visited the place, but every little helps, right? Let’s meet the key candidates fighting for votes in Sutton Coldfield.
The day after I interview him, Reform UK candidate for Sutton Coldfield, Mark Hoath, posts me a photo of a giant party flag up in a prime location close to the Conservative constituency office of Andrew Mitchell. It’s accompanied by a message from him: “I think Andrew knows who I am now!”
He was referring to an exchange the day before when I’d informed Hoath that Conservative rival Mitchell had no idea who he was, and had said he didn’t even know the gender of the Reform UK candidate. Former Conservative Hoath was miffed. "I was out supporting his campaigns, for several years actually. So either he genuinely doesn't remember me, which says a lot about the type of leader he is, or he is pretending because he is worried."
We are on the first stop of my General Election Roadtrip. Sutton Coldfield is the 78th safest Conservative seat in the country, with Mitchell holding a 19,272 majority. In 2019 he polled 31,604 votes compared to Labour's 12,332. In third were the Lib Dems with 6,358.
It's not even on Labour's list of target seats and there had been no sign of the party pouring money or resources into their campaign here. Fighting to take an apparently safe Conservative seat is the least of their problems in Birmingham.
A poll by Electoral Calculus earlier this month predicted such a big Labour landslide across the country that the Tories would be left with just 66 seats’ a second poll, by Survation, predicted the Tories retaining just 72 seats. Both would see Mitchell lose.
Rob Pocock, Labour
"It is time for a change. Sutton Coldfield needs a fresh face and new ideas. It is going backwards," says Rob Pocock, Labour's candidate. "The very first day I would be elected I would set up a Sutton Citizens' Senate. I would put together a really important piece of infrastructure, a sounding board, if you like, of a thousand families and citizens, resident groups, business, community and voluntary groups, who would be able to properly hold their MP to account.
"It would be a way to help develop a real collective sense that people can influence their town and their own neighbourhood and their MP, most importantly. It would give people the right to demand answers of their MP, on a regular basis. At the moment all interaction is on the MP's terms - he can decide when to hold surgeries, when to hold meetings, and so on. It is done at their benevolence, and it should not be done like that in my opinion.
"I would like to build a 21st century version of a living, thriving local democracy, with an online Senate and physical meetings for people to have their voices heard. We need a fresh approach. We could be a testbed here for a new way of doing things."
He also wants to reimagine a new future for Sutton Coldfield, one less dependent on traditional high street shops and focussed instead on digital businesses, high value independent retailers, creative arts businesses and town centre living.
We are in Communitea, a coffee shop in Boldmere, the area Pocock represents as a city councillor, and he’s keen to articulate how he would look to be an MP for all of the community, not just those enjoying the good life on offer here.
He's quickly accosted by women who recognise him and thank him for this or remind him of that. A knit-and-natter group of women in the corner say a big election issue for them is protecting their pensions and getting a fair deal for WASPI women.
The cost of living is a worry here as anywhere. "Everything has gone up but got smaller," notes one. They bemoan the paucity of services locally, describing the cafe we are in as their only lifeline. "It's the only place I come and feel comfortable really," says Lin.
She comes over later with her friend Liz to talk to Pocock about a problem they are having with HGVs trundling down a lane outside their homes at all hours. They also want to flag continued issues with delayed payouts through the West Midlands Pension Fund. Pocock promises to check out the latest and they leave, pledging to vote for him on July 4th.
He will need thousands more to do the same. "It will 'only' take a 19% swing to Labour," he says optimistically. "In the past we have never even got close. This time, it could be."
Andrew Mitchell, Conservative
"A vote for Reform UK is a vote for Labour," argues Andrew Mitchell as we sit in his campaign office. Mitchell exudes the confidence of a man who believes there is no way he is losing this seat. We talk about the polls. 'Ridiculous,' says Mitchell when I suggest some show he is on course to lose - and the situation is worsening, not getting better. "I'm expecting my majority to go up and not down," he proclaims.
That's a bold statement for a man who is right at the heart of the government that has left the country ravaged, under a Prime Minister whose personal poll rating is at rock bottom, and with Farage's Reform UK soaring in popularity. "Do I think everything has gone well, no, I don't," he says of recent Government failings. "But I believe the Tories, mud spattered but experienced, are the right party to deal with our problems, and we have a plan."
Rishi Sunak is a 'man of great integrity and ability'. Liz Truss was 'a short blip'. His personal record representing Sutton Coldfield is 'hugely positive'. "I will be fighting on my record as a hard working MP. I have a totally brilliant group of campaigners and friends and colleagues out every day, more than a hundred people working throughout the constituency. The polls are clearly wrong here, we know that from what we see on the ground. There is horror and anger throughout Sutton Coldfield at the miserable performance of Labour-led Birmingham City Council."
He refers to the council a lot. He says it makes sense to remind voters that the Labour-run council was forced to declare the local authority equivalent of bankruptcy last year, and that its recovery includes hiking council taxes by 10% a year, slashing local services and getting rid of hundreds of staff. He also highlights a recent council by-election in Kingstanding as proof of the hostility towards the Labour council, with voters electing a Conservative 'with a 6% swing'.
I point out that the by-election was only necessary because the sitting Conservative, Rick Payne, resigned after my expose with Hope Not Hate over his racist tweets. "Oh, I don't know anything about that," claims Mitchell. Obviously.
His selective memory kicks in again when conversation turns to Reform UK's candidate Hoath, who has been telling voters that Mitchell's family home is in north London (it is), and not Sutton Coldfield, where Mitchell also has a property. As Mitchell tells it: "The Reform person put up a poster saying I live in London - I have to break it to them, the job means you have to be in London from Monday to Thursday. The Reform guy - is it a guy, sorry, I can't even remember what sex they are."
Nigel Farage is someone Mitchell does know, however. "I count Nigel Farage as a friend and I like him but in my view he is wrong to stand against the Conservative Party. It is a great pity. I don't even know the name of the Reform candidate here, but anyone who votes for them is voting to have a Labour MP and a Labour government."
He returns to making his case for why voters shouldn't choose Labour. "Labour Birmingham, with their financial mismanagement and incompetence, has cut through. I was totally delighted to hear a Labour city councillor was standing against me because of that. One of my slogans if that if you like Birmingham Labour you will love a Labour government. We have a bit of a microclimate here where the politics is different."
He defends the Government record through 'exceptional difficulties' - Covid, the energy crisis, Ukraine. "The world is the most dangerous it has been in my 68 years and so do you want a Conservative party led by Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and David Cameron to navigate us through these storms, or Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner? That is the choice," he says.
He flags up numerous pots of money heading to the area as evidence of his achievements, including a successful £20 million Towns Fund bid for the town centre, £10m to help transform the Gracechurch shopping centre in Sutton Coldfield and a major investment to create a new boutique cinema for the town. A plan to turn the cottage hospital into a hub for older people, enabling them to stay in their own homes longer, is also hailed as his achievement. "It has taken years to achieve that."
He says these achievements 'are a way of helping with deprivation' which he acknowledges exists 'in pockets' around Sutton Coldfield. "We are certainly very fortunate in Sutton Coldfield. We are an ancient royal town, we have our own heritage...but there are pockets of deprivation and they occupy me as MP extensively in trying to do something about it."
Mitchell makes no secret of his privileged upbringing. The son of a Tory minister, he attended private schools including Rugby School, before studying history at Jesus College Cambridge. He was an investment banker before becoming an MP, first in Nottinghamshire and, since 2001, in Sutton Coldfield. He’s endured the plebgate controversy of 2012, among other low points.
But he’s also been questioned about his commitment to his constituency, given that in recent years he has juggled his role as an MP with significant private work as a part time consultant. Hoath and Lib Dem candidate John Sweeney have both raised it as a sign of a lack of commitment to his full time role as an MP; Mitchell says everything he does is above board, legal and openly shared.
The figures do look startling. Until he rejoined Government late in 2022 as minister for development and Africa, he spent significant time on outside work.
Until October 2022, he was senior adviser to Montrose Associates, providing strategic consultancy at a rate of £9,000 a quarter for two days a quarter. That’s an annual income of £36k for eight days work.
Until October 2022, he was an advisor providing general business advice to Arch Emerging Partners Ltd investment managers - earning £15,000 a year for 2.5 days work, plus extra commission for ‘introducing any new business’
Until October 2022, he was senior adviser on African matters to SouthBridge, an investment bank providing pan-African financial and advisory solutions for clients across Africa, based in Rwanda. He received £39,600 a year for nine days’ work.
Until October 2022, he was senior adviser to Kingsley Capital Partners (a private equity and venture capital firm), and received shares in Equinox International Holdings Ltd amounting to 0.5% at an estimated value of approximately £130,000 and shares in Himalayan Ventures Limited amounting to 0.25%, at an estimated maximum value of £12,500, and in exchange for eight days work a year.
Together that adds up to 27.5 days a year and earnings of £90,400 plus shares and commission.
Mark Hoath
A Conservative for years, Hoath was a staunch Brexiteer and switched to the Brexit Party in the runup to the 2019 election - reluctantly withdrawing under party orders. His move to ReformUK came later and he’s now a passionate advocate of the Farage-led party.
"I'm disillusioned with the state of Sutton itself, the magistrates court has gone, the police station looks like going, and the town centre is declining badly. Mitchell says he's doing a lot but nothing has happened - I have actually been working with the Gracechurch Centre to help bring retailers in on a consultancy basis.
"I am well known locally. I've got experience and contacts and am keen to do something, not just talk about it.”
He says: "People are struggling due to the cost of living, high taxes and high energy bills. Sutton is dressed up as an affluent area, but I can assure you there are a lot of people struggling, who have been forgotten. Look at Falcon Lodge, people there have been hit hard...I believe in free enterprise and business, to help the small businesses in this constituency."
He added: "I'm a Brexiteer, and the Conservatives have screwed up Brexit - we would fix it." The Labour party before them, and Conservatives after, have crashed this country into the ground, he said.
"The game is up for the Conservatives,” he said. Reform UK will form a more viable opposition in government when Labour win so a vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote, he said.
On racism allegations against his party, he has a quick riposte: "Look, if I was a racist, I would not have an Indian wife and two mixed-parent children. My wife's family came over as immigrants. I absolutely don't demonise immigrants - the people I demonise are the politicians who have messed this up. If I was an immigrant I would take advantage. I have a reputation in the workplace of bringing through people with diverse backgrounds. It angers me when Reform UK is assumed to be a racist party, it's nonsense. We are challenging the status quo. The reality is they are letting nearly 700,000 more people into the country (than leave - confirmed by government net migration data) and half of them don't contribute. That must stop. That is not far right, that is just common sense."
On dealing with racists, he says he believes ReformUK act more swiftly than the mainstream parties following complaints. He reveals he recently discovered a volunteer support was a former member of the BNP. "Within five minutes he was kicked out, all his channels shut down, we refunded his membership and he was gone."
He denies being a pandemic denier - a claim levelled at him after he reposted a sceptical scientist on social media. He says however he would not personally take another vaccine because he fell ill after getting his second.
Given the earlier content of this newsletter, it’s important to highlight too that Hoath, and the Reform party more widely, have questionable views on LGBT and transgender issues. Hoath remarks how he was recently canvassing parents outside Arthur Terry school and was asked to ‘move along’ by a member of staff because of complaints. He said: "I was handing out leaflets, like every party do,” he said. But he said he was also highlighting ‘concern’ that primary school children are being taught what he called ‘transgender ideology’. “The majority of parents I spoke to agreed," he claimed.
The Reform UK position in its 'Contract with Voters' contains a vow to ban “transgender ideology” in primary and secondary schools. “There are two sexes and two genders,” the policy declares. “It is a dangerous safeguarding issue to confuse children by suggesting otherwise… (there should be) no gender questioning, social transitioning or pronoun swapping.’ The policy also advocates that parents of under-16s should be informed about their children’s life decisions. “Schools must have single-sex facilities,” they add.
Says Hoath: “We should not be teaching young children about sex education at all.” He said he would devote his time as MP to 'doing the job, 100% of my time."
John Sweeney
Investigative journalist and raconteur John Sweeney is making a stir in Sutton Coldfield, challenging the status quo through a combination of funny videos, incisive questions and a daily pub visit.
During his career working on special reports for Panorama, Newsnight and the BBC he exposed mass graves in Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe, corruption inside the scientology community, and helped secure the release of three women wrongly convicted over baby deaths - an investigation that won him major awards. He exposed the News of the World 'fake sheikh' reporter, and went undercover in North Korea.
Sutton Coldfield must feel a bit, well, tame, compared to that, I suggest. Sweeney, in his trademark beanie hat, says he is standing in this election to highlight the failures of Labour run Birmingham City Council, particularly its repeated inability to follow the equal pay Act that has led to masses of financially crippling pay claims, and to expose Conservative Andrew Mitchell for failing to put residents first, as he puts it.
But he says while he may have confronted Putin and crossed swords with international villains during his career, he is a 'complete rookie' when it comes to running political campaigns. But if nothing he has injected some humour into proceedings. One of his policy pledges is to rewild Sutton Park by reintroducing otter, beavers and red deer, returning it to its former glory under Henry VIII - he's made this hilarious video making his case.
He wants to tax Amazon, who have built a major distribution outlet in the area, on online sales and use the cash to fund local projects, and says he doesn't agree with taxing private schools, as he fears doing so will simply trigger a price hike for homes close to the best state schools. His primary aim is, he says, to get the Conservatives out.
But he also rejects suggestions that the best way to do so here might be to stand aside and encourage supporters to vote for Labour. "I believe strongly in democracy and it's beautiful that in this country we have a free vote, and it's vital I provide that option."
Also standing:
Ben Auton, Green Party
Wajad Burkey, Workers Party of GB
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