All over bar the voting?
Conservative Andy Street should be on course for electoral humiliation in the West Midlands mayoral election in six days. Read my special pre-election edition as I explore why it's not over yet
Hello and welcome to this edition of Inside Birmingham with Jane Haynes (that’s me!).
Thanks so much for your feedback so far - the response to last week’s look into whether Birmingham City Council sold short its land in Bordesley Park to Blues, or struck a great deal, generated loads of interest. There were 16,000 reads of a preview and some really insightful commentary from subscribers and on X/Twitter. Your support is much appreciated.
Today’s edition focusses on local democracy in action, with the polls opening on Thursday in multiple local and regional elections. The most eye catching is the battle for West Midlands metro mayor, but lest we forget the role of West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner is also up for grabs, in a straight fight between Simon Foster (Labour) and Tom Byrne (Cons). Several local councils are also holding elections - at Dudley Council, all seats are up for grabs, while Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Cannock Chase, Coventry, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Redditch and Tamworth have elections for a third of councillors.
But it’s the mayoral contest that’s my focus, and particularly the battle between rivals Andy Street and Richard Parker. Does Street’s record stand up to scrutiny, what will they each do to make our lives better, and who is going to win?
Let’s take a quick look at the polling.
Nationally, it’s no secret that the Conservatives are faring badly. Only 15% of the public thought the Tories were fit to govern in April. Recent YouGov polling on General Election voting intentions, for April 16-17, has the Conservatives on 21%, Labour on 44%, Reform UK on 14%, the Lib Dems on 8% and the Greens on 8%.
There have also been three specific West Midlands mayoral election polls. The first, from Redfield and Wilton a week ago, put Labour’s Richard Parker miles ahead on 42% and the Conservatives’ Andy Street on 28%.
Philip van Scheltinga, director of research at Redfield and Wilton Strategies, said despite Mr Street being a “well-liked” politician the wider Tory brand was now “so damaged… even strong, independently-minded candidates like him are being put in a losing position.”
A recent re-run of the same poll found the gap had shrunk to 6% in a week, with Street mostly picking up votes from those who had previously said they’d be backing Reform UK. A poll from Sevanta for The News Agents had the two rivals even closer, with a 3% lead for the Labour man. A YouGov poll is due imminently, and that could bring some clarity.
But without wishing to cast aspersions on the noble science of polling, I wouldn’t set much store by any of this. In the run-up to the 2021 mayoral vote, Labour’s Liam Byrne was polling 40% and was significantly ahead of Street, and we all know how that turned out. (If you don’t, Street won by over 40,000 votes).
Both the Parker and the Street teams are very keen right now to present the outcome as likely ‘very tight’ - this might be based on their door knocking and phone polls, but most likely is because they know voters are less likely to turn out if they believe the result is strongly in favour or against them. They are also both desperate to manage the fallout, on a personal and party level, and a loss in a tight contest gives them the best chance of recovery.
Over the last three months I’ve attended hustings, interviewed both men, and listened to feedback and insights from those closest to their campaigns. These are some of my observations.
The claims, the challenges, the stats
ANDY STREET, CONSERVATIVE
His manifesto is available in full by clicking here
Andy Street remains a consumate professional and communicator, a man who never makes a gaffe. But the introduction of a ‘first past the post’ system for mayoral elections this time and his party’s negative standing across the country mean he is doubling down on his ‘Conservative, me?’ shtick and doing what he always professed he would not - he’s got political.
Street has joined the pile-on, rightly or wrongly, over Birmingham City Council’s finances and made barbed comments about the local leadership at every opportunity - a move that triggered a letter of no confidence from the Labour leaders of some of the seven councils that make up the mayoralty, who say he should have been doing more to fight for local government funding over the past seven years. That annoyed him; he called it ‘gutter politics’, they say ‘he started it’.
Chinks of frustration have emerged in hustings events when challenged on his record, and his numbers. He has been more tetchy than I can recall in the previous election, but he’s also run a particularly gruelling campaign. He’s been the only ever present at mayoral hustings and public gatherings, as far as I can check.
He has focussed heavily on Brand Andy - so if he wins it will be despite the Conservative Government, and if he loses it will be because he couldn’t overcome the drag they put on his campaign. The West Midlands has become practically a no-go zone for Government ministers…there’ve been no sightings of Rishi Sunak for instance. Street’s friend Michael Gove had been due in town last week before ditching it. Jeremy Hunt visited a few weeks back but no media were invited. This could not stand in more marked contrast to the Labour campaign, with Richard Parker’s close links to the Labour leadership evident as he supped pints with Keir Starmer, rode a bus with Angela Rayner and Lou Haigh, and announced a house building plan with Rachel Reeves.
How genuine Street’s distance is from the party is somewhat questionable. During the last four years of his mayoralty he received more than £1m from the Conservative party in donations to fund his personal propoganda machine and aides. According to the Electoral Commission’s reports of donees between 2021 and February this year, he was the biggest single recipient of donations from the Conservative Party in that time, with 95 payments.
The ‘Brand Andy’ narrative also has its limitations when it comes to persuading those who wouldn’t normally vote Tory to set aside their political allegiances. It only works if he can persuade people he has personally done such a good job that his achievements outweigh him being part of the Conservative Party machine.
Many do, indeed, believe he has delivered well for the region on investment and housebuilding, among other things, has been a powerful ambassador and can be trusted to stand up for the West Midlands. But others say his record does not stand up to scrutiny, particularly on homelessness, jobs and the delivery of tram extensions and train stations at a much slower rate than he predicted.
Without dissecting every single pledge, here are a few that have come up repeatedly on the campaign trail.
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