My predictions for Birmingham in 2025

What lies behind and ahead for Birmingham

Belated new year salutations to you, and wishing you peace, good health and happiness for the 12 months ahead. It is going to be a critically important one for the future of our region and city.

If you’re currently in a happy bubble of optimism, you might want to stop reading now. For this is my look at what I predict will happen in 2025 (and a bit beyond) inside Birmingham City Council and, try as I might, I can’t see far beyond storm clouds.

Alarming cuts to services will become real. Job losses among council personnel will continue. Fortnightly bin collections will begin. Industrial relations will continue to be strained, as exemplified by the current spate of bin strikes.

A new Budget will be signed off next month that will bring more cuts and a council tax hike. Then all eyes politically will turn to the council’s all-out elections next May.

So…drumroll…here we go with what I expect to happen, leading up to my big prediction for what the council will look like in May 2026. If you read it and think it’s bunkum, makes sense, or you know better, do get in touch to tell me why. I’ll think up a prize for the best and most believable alternative suggestion (probably the innards of the leftover Christmas cracker I found earlier under the settee). Email jane.haynes@reachplc.com with your tips and hints.

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My predictions for the city council - in chronological-ish order

Prediction 1: Max Caller will depart

I’ll start with Max the Axe, who I predict will be off by the time this spring rolls in. Max Caller is the external independent lead commissioner sent in by Michael Gove in October 2023 to run Birmingham City Council. Now aged 74, I wager he will depart soon. He might retire completely but, if good health prevails, I reckon he will be offered an advisory role that draws on his decades of experience in local government, away from Birmingham.

Some might revel in his departure and say good riddance; plenty of others will say he has been just what a chaotic, badly run Birmingham needed, a firm and steady hand. Caller will be deemed to have fulfilled his initial remit.

check out my previous piece about Max and the council here.

A new style of government intervention will be established as a result. Deputy PM Angela Rayner and her local government minister Jim McMahon are keen to work up an alternative model of support for Birmingham City Council - one less autocratic than the top-down directions imposed by Michael Gove in 2023. I won’t be surprised if Caller’s departure is swiftly followed by a gradual shrinking of the commissioner team, as long as the council finances are on a close to even footing. Managing Director Joanne Roney and her newly appointed top team will also need to prove to Rayner and McMahon that the city is in safe hands. Which leads me neatly on to…

Prediction 2: New council MD Joanne Roney will find her voice

After a quiet few months out of the public eye since joining the council in September, Brummie-born Roney will step up publicly and show why she’s getting a £300k a year salary. Her reputation for decisive leadership and a zeal for public sector reform and community partnerships will be tested to the limits. Setting a legal budget in February that is capable of getting past a wary and anxious council and commissioners will be her first massive challenge. Then she can work on persuading a cynical public, business sector and investors that she will lead Birmingham to a brighter future.

Prediction 3: Labour group has big troubles ahead

The first challenge to Birmingham Labour group unity comes next month (February), when the council meets to sign off the draft Budget for the year ahead. It’s likely to include some unpalatable cuts. There are rumours of a rebellion afoot.

At least 13 Labour members would need to join with 38 opposition members to form a majority against the Budget. I highly doubt that will happen but there will certainly be some worrying moments for the leadership and embattled chief whip Ray Goodwin ahead of the Budget meeting. I imagine there might also be a handful of sudden illnesses and urgent business meetings for a few members on the day of the vote.

More internal strife will erupt when the party picks who is standing in 2026. The fate of sitting councillors will be decided a fortnight after the budget debate. Anyone who votes against the budget, has been otherwise disloyal or who has not worked hard enough for residents will be out.

It means the uneasy peace that’s been a feature of the group all year will cease. Currently there are 63 Labour councillors (out of 101). But an analysis of General and Mayoral voter sampling at ward level in the city suggests many of them will not survive next year’s elections. Only ten wards polled over 50% for Labour.

The party now has to decide who to offer ‘safe seats’ to, and who to cut loose. There could be some high profile casualties. The job of those making the decisions will be eased by the departure of Labour members opting to retire after years of service, along with those who just don’t want to be part of local politics any more, or want to find an easier way to make a living. But it will be ruthless. Local members will have zero say - this will all be decided by higher forces inside the party.

Prediction 4: The return of Akhmed Yakoob

The stand-out Independent challengers of the 2024 General Election, Akhmed Yakoob and Jody McIntyre, will re-emerge as forces to be reckoned with in local politics, whether you think that’s a good thing or not. I predict Yakoob will largely choose politics over being a lawyer, presuming the Solicitors Regulation Authority don’t act against him over his part in the false ‘racist’ narrative that blighted the life of a local teacher last year. I don’t think he will stand himself - he has his sights set still on the mayoralty in 2028 or Parliament in 2029 - but expect him to be heavily involved in the city council campaigns by Independents and the Workers’ Party.

Prediction 5: Equal pay crisis will finally be over

A pay settlement for thousands of underpaid claimants has been agreed in principle, and the council says it is on target to agree a new pay and grading policy for staff. It should be all over by the end of this year. But questions persist over what went so wrong.