Reform walkover for Birmingham and Black Country - latest polling

It's hard to see any other outcome unless Labour get in the fight

Morning, it’s been a minute. Hope you’re grand.

There’s some new national polling out that, not unexpectedly, projects Reform would be the clear front runner everywhere if a general election was called today.

But it makes especially stark reading for the West Midlands. If voters went to the polls today, Reform would destroy Labour’s stronghold in Birmingham and the Black Country. There’s nothing in it to delight the Tories either - they’d be wiped out in Solihull and would lose Sutton Coldfield.

While the More In Common poll is intended to indicate voting intentions in a GE, I think it’s a very useful barometer of how people are feeling about the major parties as we count down to critical local elections in May 2026.

The future direction of Birmingham, Dudley, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Sandwell and Solihull councils will be decided in 10 months and right now I’m struggling to envisage anything other than a light blue takeover.

And what’s most alarming is that the Labour party faithful appear to agree.

With some notable exceptions, it feels like most of the folk in Labour locally have given up and are accepting their fate.

I’ll return to this in a minute, but first the polling details.

The latest of the monthly polls conducted by More in Common, based on an analysis of voting intentions of 10,000 people across the country, suggests this picture nationally:

• Reform UK would become the largest party with 290 seats

• Labour is second on 126 seats, losing 285 of the seats they won just a year ago and leaving them with fewer than half as many seats as Reform.

• Conservatives take third place. They would have fewer than 100 seats and only just sit ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

Labour strategist Pat McFadden, Wolverhampton South East, and safeguarding minister Jess Phillips, Birmingham Yardley, would be among the ministers who would be toast (along with the likes of Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting et al).

There are some important caveats.

More in Common themselves accept the polling model doesn’t account for local factors that impact some constituencies more than others, and here in Birmingham we saw what a massive impact the Gaza situation and the influence of Independents can have on outcomes. The GE is also a long way off and that can influence how people think. But this is what the local results show:

Birmingham - 10 seats (5 Reform, 4 Labour, 1 Independent)

On this polling, Labour would be left with four Birmingham seats - Ladywood, Edgbaston, Selly Oak and Hall Green and Moseley.

Reform would take Northfield, Erdington, Hodge Hill and Solihull North, and Yardley from Labour, and snatch Sutton Coldfield from the Conservatives.

Independent Ayoub Khan would retain Perry Barr.

Solihull - 2 seats (2 Reform)

I’ve included Liam Byrne’s seat that extends into north Solihull above, leaving two Solihull seats - and both would go to Reform.

Solihull West and Shirley, and neighbouring Meriden and Solihull East would be taken from the Conservatives.

Black Country - 11 seats (11 Reform)

But the biggest wipeout would be in Wolverhampton, Walsall, Sandwell and Dudley, where every seat would turn light blue, according to these predictions.

Smethwick, West Bromwich, Tipton and Wednesbury, Dudley, Walsall and Bloxwich, the three Wolverhampton seats (West, North East and South East), Halesowen and Stourbridge would all be taken from Labour. Aldridge-Brownhills would be lost by the Conservatives.

Further out, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, Tamworth, Redditch and Wyre Forest would also succumb to the Farage factor.

Disillusioned Labour voters would largely be switching to Reform, the polling suggests.

Fast forward to May 2026. It’s highly likely, based on this polling and the Reform party’s performance at the 2025 locals, that all of the councils in Birmingham and the Black Country will have a significant Reform presence - at least some seats, at most the leadership. There will also likely be a fair sprinkle of Independents, either on a local issue platform or part of the pro-Palestine movement.

Under that scenario, Labour Mayor Richard Parker would have to temper his ambitions. He has to answer to and have his decisions shaped by a board made up of local council leaders - more Labour, more support, less Labour, more challenge.

Labour MPs also know that their seats are more likely to be doomed if fewer Labour members are returned in council wards. They rely heavily on a network of local councillors and supporters to bolster their campaigning, knock doors and man phone banks. Fewer councillors = fewer feet on the street = fewer votes.

So you’d imagine they are all in fight mode, yes, ready to repel Reform and show they are the safer bet?

Well, no. With notable exceptions, all I see is abject weariness and a lack of belief; I’m seeing people giving up; and a profound lack of unity and leadership.

In seven years covering social affairs and politics in Birmingham and the BC, I can’t recall a more lacklustre, defeated mood.

Over the next few months, the Government - itself beleaguered and lacking vision after just a year in power - will make more funding announcements for the region. I’ll get more invites to meet ministers, desperate to give their local MPs and councils something positive to promote.

And Labour fingers will be firmly crossed in the hope that Reform will cock up running the councils they already control, or say enough shocking things to turn off voters seeking an alternative.

But so far that seems to be the extent of the masterplan.

They have ten months to turn it around.

I’ll keep you updated.

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